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Abstract As the major form of coral reef regime shift, stony coral to macroalgal transitions have received considerable attention. In the Caribbean, however, regime shifts in which scleractinian corals are replaced by octocoral assemblages hold potential for maintaining reef associated communities. Accordingly, forecasting the resilience of octocoral assemblages to future disturbance regimes is necessary to understand these assemblages' capacity to maintain reef biodiversity. We parameterised integral projection models quantifying the survival, growth, and recruitment of the octocorals,Antillogorgia americana,Gorgonia ventalina, andEunicea flexuosa,in St John, US Virgin Islands, before, during, and after severe hurricane disturbance. Using these models, we forecast the density of populations of each species under varying future hurricane regimes. We demonstrate that although hurricanes reduce population growth,A. americana,G. ventalina, andE. flexuosaeach display a capacity for quick recovery following storm disturbance. Despite this recovery potential, we illustrate how the population dynamics of each species correspond with a longer-term decline in their population densities. Despite their resilience to periodic physical disturbance events, ongoing global change jeopardises the future viability of octocoral assemblages. 

Coral reefs throughout the tropics have experienced large declines in abundance of scleractinian corals over the last few decades, and some reefs are becoming functionally dominated by animal taxa other than scleractinians. This phenomenon is striking on many shallow reefs in the tropical western Atlantic, where arborescent octocorals now are numerically and functionally dominant. Octocorals are one of several taxa that have been overlooked for decades in analyses of coral reef community dynamics, and our understanding of why octocorals are favored (whereas scleractinians are not) on some modern reefs, and how they will affect the function of future reef communities, is not commensurate with the task of scientifically responding to the coral reef crisis. We summarize the biological and ecological features predisposing octocorals for success under contemporary conditions, and focus on those features that could have generated resistance and resilience of octocoral populations to environmental change on modern reefs. There is a rich set of opportunities for rapid advancement in understanding the factors driving the success of octocorals on modern reefs, but we underscore three lines of inquiry: (1) the functional implications of strongly mixotrophic, polytrophic, and plastic nutrition, (2) the capacity to recruit at high densities and maintain rapid initial rates of vertical growth, and (3) the emergent properties associated with dense animal forests at high colony densities.